On 5th March, I realised that the number of newly detected carriers of the coronavirus here in Switzerland had started to show worrying increases:
On Saturday 7th March, as I extended my condolences to a neighbour who is active in local politics and having spent 40 minutes with him discussing various topics, including the coronavirus, I became even more worried as I was under the impression that both the cantonal (Vaud) and communal (Lausanne) authorities were not taking the risk of a pandemic outbreak in the canton seriously enough. So that the following day, while holding my daily Skype conversation with my wife (presently in Southeast Asia), I confided to her that I feared that we were lagging behind the curve in this country with regard to the precautionary measures that ought to have been taken to contain the spread of this much-feared virus. On the 12th, I told my wife that the only possibility to limit an explosion in the number of people contaminated here would be to put everybody off work for a fortnight, except for, of course, those employed in essential services (medical staff, the police, the firebrigade people, etc.).
However, mea culpa too, as it was only on Friday 13th March that I started to warn relatives and friends of the danger of being contaminated based on my own back-of-the-envelope calculations and that I strongly urged them to stay at home as much as possible (limiting shopping outings to once a week), as I was still more interested in events going on in the Middle East (including the spread of the coronavirus in Iran) and elsewhere than in what was taking place in my own country.
On the same day, the Swiss federal government announced in a press conference a new set of measures to be followed by all those living in Switzerland (e.g. barring entry to anybody coming from Italy except for cross-border workers; forbidding public and private gatherings of more than 100 people, etc. — see the French version of the communiqué I archived here).
With the leap in the number of newly detected carriers reported on Sunday (EIGHT HUNDRED AND FORTY-ONE), Monday saw a scramble for which canton would issue the most stringent set of measures (as regards public and private gatherings, it was Geneva, which limited them to only 5 people) and some cantons, including this one (i.e. Vaud) even issued two sets of measures on the same day (the first set, the second)! Most cantonal measures which were proclaimed on Monday 16th March were superseded by those of the Swiss federal government, which came out with a new set of measures whilst holding a new press conference at 5pm on the same evening.
However, the curve has only steepened here in Vaud, with as many as FOUR HUNDRED people having been tested positive in this canton alone between Sunday 15th and Tuesday 17th March.
So I fear that unless we see some drop in the number of new cases reported tomorrow and in the days immediately after, hospitals in this canton will not be able to cope with such huge increases for very long.
To anybody reading this post, please spare a prayer for Italy and Iran, which have been hit even much, much harder.
The frontpage of the Italian national news agency which I archived for 18th March: https://web.archive.org/web/20200319050637/http://www.ansa.it/english/
Iran’s supreme leader issues fatwa banning ‘unnecessary travel’ as coronavirus death toll mounts
17 Mar, 2020 15:35
[…]
If the citizenry continues to disregard the health guidelines issued by the authorities, the situation could easily spin out of control, Iranian scientists have warned. Iran will see ‘only’ 120,000 infections and 12,000 deaths if the people actually stick to the health guidelines, a study by Iran’s Sharif University of Technology indicates.
Complete disregard of any guidance, however, is likely to collapse the country’s entire healthcare system – in which case, four million cases and 3.5 million deaths are likely to occur, they stated.
Iran is among the countries hardest-hit by the coronavirus pandemic. On Tuesday, it saw a 13-percent increase in the death toll, which is nearing 1,000.
[…]
https://www.rt.com/news/483337-iran-coronavirus-travel-ban/
Liz Specht, ‘I think most people aren’t aware of the risk of systemic healthcare failure due to #COVID19 because they simply haven’t run the numbers yet.’, 7th March 2020 https://twitter.com/LizSpecht/status/1236095180459003909
“Flattening the Curve” is a deadly delusion
Joscha Bach
Mar 14 · 9 min read
[…]
There will be some countries that do not have the necessary infrastructure to implement severe containment measures, which include widespread testing, quarantines, movement restrictions, travel restrictions, work restrictions, supply chain reorganization, school closures, childcare for people working in critical professions, production and distribution of protective equipment and medical supplies. This means that some countries will stomp out the virus and others will not. In a few months from now, the world will turn into red zones and green zones, and almost all travel from red zones into green zones will come to a halt, until an effective treatment for COVID-19 is found.
Flattening the curve is not an option for the United States, for the UK or Germany. Don’t tell your friends to flatten the curve. Let’s start containment.
https://medium.com/@joschabach/flattening-the-curve-is-a-deadly-delusion-eea324fe9727
à la mode de chez nous 